Economy

India's core sector output shrank 0.4% in March, hitting a 19-month low, with crude oil production falling 5.7% year-on-year. Since these eight industries make up roughly 40% of industrial output, the drop is likely to weigh on broader factory output data when it is released.

U.S. job creation dropped to 189,000, the lowest level since the 1960s, catching markets and financial media off guard. The reading significantly increases pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates sooner than expected.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called recent inflation data "bad news," reinforcing that interest rate cuts are unlikely to come soon. The comments signal the Fed needs significantly more progress on inflation before it will ease borrowing costs.

Pakistan's CPI rose nearly 11pc year-on-year in April, the first double-digit reading in 21 months, as Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushed transport costs up 15.47pc and perishable food prices up 15.25pc.

The Federal Reserve meets this week and is expected to hold interest rates steady, with elevated energy prices and the unresolved Iran conflict clouding the economic outlook. The meeting may also be Jerome Powell's last as Fed chair, adding leadership uncertainty to an already complex policy moment.

India targets imports of 64 lakh tonnes of urea and 19 lakh tonnes of other fertilisers as the US-Israel-Iran conflict pushes global prices higher. With domestic urea output at 35.4 lakh tonnes, the shortfall will increase India's fertiliser subsidy burden.

India's industrial output grew 4.1% in March, slowing from 5.2% in February but still beating analyst estimates. Geopolitical tensions linked to Iran weighed on sentiment, though the above-forecast print signals underlying resilience in domestic industrial activity.

India's fertilizer production for March, April is expected to hit only about 64 lakh tonnes, nearly 12 lakh tonnes below last year's level. Supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict have cut the flow of inputs needed for domestic manufacturing.

UPI processed 24,162 crore transactions worth ₹314 lakh crore in FY26, setting a new record for India's digital payments network. The scale reinforces UPI's role as the core of retail finance and supports broader goals around financial inclusion and formal economic activity. The government has signaled continued focus

Government sources say a petrol and diesel price hike cannot be ruled out soon, as oil companies face mounting losses. Retail fuel prices have been frozen for four years while global crude costs have risen sharply. An increase would raise costs for consumers and could push up broader inflation.

Global crude oil prices have jumped from around $70 per barrel last year to over $114 per barrel this month, raising the likelihood of petrol and diesel price hikes in India. Indian state oil companies are currently absorbing the cost gap, but that buffer is under strain. A retail fuel price revision could push up

Commercial LPG cylinder prices in India have jumped by Rs 933, squeezing small food businesses that have no subsidy protection. Household LPG prices remain shielded, but the cost may flow through to consumers via higher meal prices at small eateries and street stalls.

India's GST collections reached a record ₹2.43 lakh crore in April 2025, up from the previous high of ₹2.23 lakh crore in April 2024. The roughly 9% year-on-year rise eases pressure on the fiscal deficit and boosts government spending capacity.

India's gross GST collections rose 8.7% year-on-year to Rs 2.43 lakh crore in April, the highest monthly figure on record. Strong collections signal healthy consumer demand and improved tax compliance, easing fiscal pressure on the government. This is the first major revenue read of the new financial year.

India's state-run oil marketing companies are pushing the government to raise prices of LPG, petrol, diesel, and ATF after rising crude oil costs deepened their losses. With elections over, the political barrier to a price hike has eased. A government decision on revisions is now awaited.

U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 189,000, the lowest level in over 50 years, pointing to an exceptionally tight labor market. The reading gives the Federal Reserve less reason to cut interest rates in the near term. Markets will watch whether this low holds in coming weeks.

The U.S. economy expanded at a 2% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2025, a step down from recent growth levels. Rising tensions with Iran threaten to push oil prices higher, which could drag on consumer spending and business costs in the months ahead.

The RBI moved 104 tonnes of gold to domestic vaults, raising India-held reserves to around 510 tonnes out of a total 880 metric tonnes. A rally in gold prices lifted the metal's share of India's forex reserves to 16.7%, up from 13.92% six months ago. The repatriation continues a trend the RBI started in 2022.

A key U.S. inflation gauge jumped to a three-year high in March as the Iran war pushed gas prices sharply higher. The reading reduces the chances of near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs elevated for consumers and businesses.

U.S. GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in Q1, supported by AI-sector investment. War-driven inflation from the Iran conflict is offsetting some of that momentum by raising costs across the economy. The path forward depends on whether inflation persists or eases.