International relations, geopolitics, wars, major global shifts
Trump has threatened to reduce US troop levels in Germany amid transatlantic friction over the Iran conflict. Germany hosts the largest US military presence in Europe, and any real drawdown would be logistically complex and require congressional approval.
A US strike on Iran was framed as a transformational move, but analysts argue it follows the same pattern as earlier rounds of the conflict without resolving the structural drivers. Iran's nuclear know-how and proxy networks remain intact, limiting the strike's long-term effect.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented at this week's Fed meeting, warning that the U.S.-backed war with Iran could drive an oil shock that forces the central bank into multiple rate hikes. He argued the Fed must publicly acknowledge that hikes remain a real possibility to defend its 2% inflation target.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth says a ceasefire pauses the 48-hour War Powers Resolution clock, explaining why the Trump administration has not formally notified Congress after striking Iran and Houthi targets. The claim faces pushback from lawmakers who say the 1973 law contains no such ceasefire exception.
The UAE is set to leave OPEC, seeking freedom to raise its own oil output without the cartel's production limits. Analyst Rücker expects prices to ease over time, though geopolitical tensions could trigger short-term volatility. India, a major Gulf crude buyer, stands to be directly affected by any shift in UAE supply.
Yara's chief executive has warned that the Iran conflict risks cutting fertiliser supplies, which could reduce crop yields and push food prices higher globally. Fertiliser production depends heavily on natural gas, making it vulnerable to Middle East disruptions. The company says billions of meals could be at risk.
Bank of Japan data points to more than $30 billion spent intervening in currency markets on Thursday to prop up the yen. An operation of this size would rank among the largest single-day yen defense efforts on record. Official confirmation from Japan's Ministry of Finance is expected with a delay.
Japan likely spent around $35 billion buying yen in a currency market intervention, BOJ data suggests. The move signals Tokyo's concern over yen weakness, which drives up import costs for energy and food. No official government confirmation has been issued yet.
Iran activated air defence systems for roughly 20 minutes before conditions returned to normal, per Tasnim and Fars news agencies. The episode coincided with a White House statement that a ceasefire had paused a Congressional deadline, though no direct link was confirmed.
Republican lawmakers say they will defer to President Trump on Iran policy as a ceasefire deadline nears. The unified stance gives Trump broad freedom to decide whether to pursue diplomacy or escalate. No timeline for the deadline was specified in the report.
Iran has threatened a "long, painful" retaliation if the US resumes military strikes, with a ceasefire holding since April 8. Diplomatic talks aimed at a broader resolution have hit a dead end, keeping tensions high. Any breakdown in the truce could quickly affect oil markets and regional stability.
OPEC+ is close to agreeing another oil output increase, with the UAE excluded from this round, sources say. More supply from the group could push crude prices lower, affecting fuel costs and energy revenues globally.
Iran's president has described the US siege as 'intolerable' on day 63 of the conflict, as Donald Trump signaled military strikes could resume. A return to active hostilities would carry significant risk for regional stability and global oil prices.
Oil prices climbed as markets tracked the 60-day countdown under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which would require Trump to withdraw troops from any Iran engagement without a congressional vote. The law creates a hard deadline that limits unilateral military action and adds uncertainty to Gulf oil supply. Traders are
Iran is maintaining pressure on the Strait of Hormuz as President Trump considers his next move in the US-Iran standoff. The strait carries around 20% of global oil supply, making any disruption a direct risk to energy markets and fuel prices.
Brent crude hit $126.41 a barrel on Thursday, its highest since March 2022, before pulling back to $114.07 as volatility from the US-Iran war rattled oil markets. Supply disruption fears have pushed both Brent and WTI to four consecutive months of gains. No specific catalyst triggered the afternoon retreat, with
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that Hormuz Strait disruptions could push 32 million into poverty and risk a global recession. He blamed Iranian attacks and a US blockade of Iranian ports, saying even an immediate resolution would leave supply chains recovering for months. Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks
Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed at least 2,586 people and wounded over 8,000 since March 2, per local media. Separately, Iran has called US port restrictions "intolerable" as the Trump administration considers further action. No ceasefire talks are reported on either front.
The top U.S. Middle East commander briefed Trump on military options as the Persian Gulf blockade drives oil prices higher. Diplomatic talks with Iran remain stalled, and a congressional deadline for wartime authorization is approaching. Defense Secretary Hegseth also faced fresh scrutiny from lawmakers.
The US Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today, with Chair Jerome Powell announcing the rate decision at 11:30 am IST. Wall Street futures are mixed ahead of the call, with geopolitical tension from the US-Iran conflict adding uncertainty. Markets will watch Powell's commentary closely for signals on the