Global Affairs

The US Federal Reserve's FOMC begins its two-day meeting on April 28, with the rate decision due at 2:00 PM ET on April 29 followed by Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM ET.

President Trump said he is "not satisfied" with a new Iranian proposal for talks and warned he could "blast them to hell" if no deal is reached. The threat keeps military pressure alive and could unsettle oil markets given Iran's role in global crude supply.

The US has warned shipping firms not to pay tolls or "donations" demanded for Hormuz passage, raising sanctions exposure for any company that complies. The alert comes as Iranian state media reports Tehran has submitted a new peace proposal to Washington, adding diplomatic complexity to an already tense waterway.

Iran delivered a new peace proposal to the US via Pakistan, but President Trump publicly rejected it, saying he was "not satisfied" with what Tehran offered. The ceasefire brokered by Pakistan remains in place, but talks are stalled with no date set for a second round.

The Trump administration declared the U.S.-Iran war "terminated" via ceasefire on Friday, just as a 60-day War Powers Resolution deadline arrived requiring congressional authorization. The move lets the White House sidestep a congressional vote, but lawmakers could still challenge the framing.

President Trump announced a 25% tariff on EU cars and trucks, exceeding the 15% ceiling agreed under a recent transatlantic trade deal. The move threatens major European automakers with higher export costs and could prompt EU retaliation against US goods.

The Pentagon has signed deals with seven AI companies to deploy artificial intelligence systems inside classified environments. The move comes as the department navigates a standoff with Anthropic and growing concern about AI use in potential conflict with Iran.

The UAE, where non-oil sectors now generate about 75% of GDP, is weighing an exit from OPEC as production quotas clash with Abu Dhabi's economic ambitions. A departure could lift UAE output, add global oil supply, and weaken OPEC's ability to manage prices.

Iran has sent a negotiation proposal to the US via Pakistan, acting as a back-channel mediator. The move comes as US naval forces block Iranian crude exports and a sea-channel blockade cuts off roughly 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies.

UK exports to the US dropped 25% after President Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs, tipping the UK into a trade deficit with its largest trading partner. The reversal squeezes UK exporters and removes a key source of foreign earnings at a difficult moment for the British economy.

Trump has threatened to reduce US troop levels in Germany amid transatlantic friction over the Iran conflict. Germany hosts the largest US military presence in Europe, and any real drawdown would be logistically complex and require congressional approval.

A US strike on Iran was framed as a transformational move, but analysts argue it follows the same pattern as earlier rounds of the conflict without resolving the structural drivers. Iran's nuclear know-how and proxy networks remain intact, limiting the strike's long-term effect.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented at this week's Fed meeting, warning that the U.S.-backed war with Iran could drive an oil shock that forces the central bank into multiple rate hikes. He argued the Fed must publicly acknowledge that hikes remain a real possibility to defend its 2% inflation target.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth says a ceasefire pauses the 48-hour War Powers Resolution clock, explaining why the Trump administration has not formally notified Congress after striking Iran and Houthi targets. The claim faces pushback from lawmakers who say the 1973 law contains no such ceasefire exception.

The UAE is set to leave OPEC, seeking freedom to raise its own oil output without the cartel's production limits. Analyst Rücker expects prices to ease over time, though geopolitical tensions could trigger short-term volatility. India, a major Gulf crude buyer, stands to be directly affected by any shift in UAE supply.

Yara's chief executive has warned that the Iran conflict risks cutting fertiliser supplies, which could reduce crop yields and push food prices higher globally. Fertiliser production depends heavily on natural gas, making it vulnerable to Middle East disruptions. The company says billions of meals could be at risk.

Bank of Japan data points to more than $30 billion spent intervening in currency markets on Thursday to prop up the yen. An operation of this size would rank among the largest single-day yen defense efforts on record. Official confirmation from Japan's Ministry of Finance is expected with a delay.

Japan likely spent around $35 billion buying yen in a currency market intervention, BOJ data suggests. The move signals Tokyo's concern over yen weakness, which drives up import costs for energy and food. No official government confirmation has been issued yet.

Iran activated air defence systems for roughly 20 minutes before conditions returned to normal, per Tasnim and Fars news agencies. The episode coincided with a White House statement that a ceasefire had paused a Congressional deadline, though no direct link was confirmed.

Republican lawmakers say they will defer to President Trump on Iran policy as a ceasefire deadline nears. The unified stance gives Trump broad freedom to decide whether to pursue diplomacy or escalate. No timeline for the deadline was specified in the report.