International relations, geopolitics, wars, major global shifts
Iran has threatened a "long, painful" retaliation if the US resumes military strikes, with a ceasefire holding since April 8. Diplomatic talks aimed at a broader resolution have hit a dead end, keeping tensions high. Any breakdown in the truce could quickly affect oil markets and regional stability.
OPEC+ is close to agreeing another oil output increase, with the UAE excluded from this round, sources say. More supply from the group could push crude prices lower, affecting fuel costs and energy revenues globally.
Iran's president has described the US siege as 'intolerable' on day 63 of the conflict, as Donald Trump signaled military strikes could resume. A return to active hostilities would carry significant risk for regional stability and global oil prices.
Oil prices climbed as markets tracked the 60-day countdown under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which would require Trump to withdraw troops from any Iran engagement without a congressional vote. The law creates a hard deadline that limits unilateral military action and adds uncertainty to Gulf oil supply. Traders are
Iran is maintaining pressure on the Strait of Hormuz as President Trump considers his next move in the US-Iran standoff. The strait carries around 20% of global oil supply, making any disruption a direct risk to energy markets and fuel prices.
Brent crude hit $126.41 a barrel on Thursday, its highest since March 2022, before pulling back to $114.07 as volatility from the US-Iran war rattled oil markets. Supply disruption fears have pushed both Brent and WTI to four consecutive months of gains. No specific catalyst triggered the afternoon retreat, with
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that Hormuz Strait disruptions could push 32 million into poverty and risk a global recession. He blamed Iranian attacks and a US blockade of Iranian ports, saying even an immediate resolution would leave supply chains recovering for months. Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks
Israeli attacks on Lebanon have killed at least 2,586 people and wounded over 8,000 since March 2, per local media. Separately, Iran has called US port restrictions "intolerable" as the Trump administration considers further action. No ceasefire talks are reported on either front.
The top U.S. Middle East commander briefed Trump on military options as the Persian Gulf blockade drives oil prices higher. Diplomatic talks with Iran remain stalled, and a congressional deadline for wartime authorization is approaching. Defense Secretary Hegseth also faced fresh scrutiny from lawmakers.
The US Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today, with Chair Jerome Powell announcing the rate decision at 11:30 am IST. Wall Street futures are mixed ahead of the call, with geopolitical tension from the US-Iran conflict adding uncertainty. Markets will watch Powell's commentary closely for signals on the
The US Congress passed a bill restoring DHS funding and ending a partial government shutdown that had left federal workers unpaid for weeks. The bill excludes ICE, leaving that agency's funding unresolved. Federal workers covered by the measure will now receive back pay.
Trump is planning a May trip to China, with a U.S.-Iran conflict expected to dominate the agenda. China has called the war unnecessary, complicating talks that already carry high economic stakes. How Beijing handles pressure over Iranian oil trade could shape the outcome of broader U.S.-China negotiations.
A congressional deadline for President Trump to end or justify the U.S.-Iran conflict arrives Friday with no resolution in sight. The war has settled into a shipping-route standoff, and the deadline is expected to pass without altering U.S. military posture. Congressional war powers oversight remains unresolved.
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held a video call with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, with Beijing describing the tone as candid and constructive. The call comes weeks before an expected Trump-Xi summit, raising hopes for progress on trade tensions that have unsettled global
Rajnath Singh said India stopped Operation Sindoor by choice, not due to any military constraints, and called Pakistan the 'epicentre of terrorism'. He stressed that Indian forces can scale up at any time, framing the halt as a conditional pause. The remarks reinforce India's official narrative that it controlled the
Japan's yen surged after Tokyo issued a strong warning about possible currency market intervention to halt the yen's slide. The warning signals Japan may soon buy yen directly, which could jolt dollar and global bond markets. No confirmed intervention has been announced yet.
President Trump says the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue until Iran agrees to abandon its nuclear weapons program. Pentagon officials told Congress the conflict has cost $25 billion so far, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced criticism of the strategy. Gas prices are rising as markets price in
Oil price forecasts are moving higher as markets price in the risk of a prolonged supply disruption tied to the conflict involving Iran. Iran is a major OPEC producer, and a sustained outage would tighten global crude supply. Higher oil prices could raise import costs and fuel prices in India and other large importers.
Japan's finance minister warned markets after the yen fell past 160 per dollar, a level that has previously triggered government currency intervention. A weaker yen drives up import costs for fuel, food, and materials, adding to domestic inflation pressure. Markets are watching for signs that Tokyo may move from verbal
Pakistan has activated overland trade routes into Iran after US-Iran tensions disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving cargo stranded. The land corridor offers a short-term fix but likely raises transport costs and transit times for traders on both sides.