Oil prices are rising again as the United States weighs military options against Iran and diplomatic efforts to end the conflict stall. The top U.S. commander in the Middle East briefed President Trump on Thursday on possible military moves and the ongoing blockade of the Persian Gulf, a critical shipping corridor for global oil supply. Talks to end the war with Iran have not advanced. The Persian Gulf blockade is the direct driver of the oil price surge. A significant share of the world's seaborne crude passes through the strait, so any disruption, or even prolonged uncertainty, pushes prices higher across global markets. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced fresh questioning from lawmakers on Thursday, adding political pressure to an already tense situation. A deadline for congressional wartime authorization is also approaching, which could force a formal vote on whether U.S. military action has legal backing. Watch for whether Congress acts on authorization, any shift in Gulf shipping conditions, and whether the Iran talks resume, each could move oil markets sharply.
Qatar's foreign ministry said mediators including Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman have reached "very progressive stages" in efforts to end the US-Iran war, pushing Brent crude down more than four percent.
Qatar confirmed it is mediating between the US and Iran but said no direct talks are currently planned. The clarification follows conflicting statements from President Trump, who claimed talks are under way, and Tehran, which denied any dialogue is happening.
Saudi Aramco reported sharply higher second-quarter 2026 profits as the Iran war restricts global oil supply and pushes crude prices up. Other oil supermajors also posted outsized earnings, raising concerns about sustained fuel cost pressure for importing economies.
President Trump called current Iran negotiations the "last chance" to end five months of conflict, pushing oil prices higher. Tehran denied formal talks are taking place, raising the risk of a diplomatic breakdown with direct consequences for global energy markets.
