The United States has decided against extending waivers that permitted Indian purchases of Russian oil, tightening pressure on New Delhi at a moment when the Strait of Hormuz crisis is already straining global energy supply lines. India, which has become one of Russia's largest crude customers since Western sanctions redirected Moscow's export flows, now faces a narrower set of options to source discounted barrels without exposure to secondary sanctions risk. Russia has moved to reassure India of continued supply across crude oil, LPG, and LNG, signaling Moscow's intent to preserve one of its most strategically valuable trade relationships. The mechanism here is compounding: Hormuz disruptions reduce available alternatives from Gulf producers while the US waiver withdrawal raises the compliance cost of maintaining Russian volumes. India's government is engaged in active talks with US counterparts, according to sources, suggesting the final trade and policy posture is not yet locked. Energy procurement strategy, rupee-rouble settlement arrangements, and India's broader non-alignment posture will all come under renewed scrutiny in the weeks ahead.
Qatar's foreign ministry said mediators including Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman have reached "very progressive stages" in efforts to end the US-Iran war, pushing Brent crude down more than four percent.
Qatar confirmed it is mediating between the US and Iran but said no direct talks are currently planned. The clarification follows conflicting statements from President Trump, who claimed talks are under way, and Tehran, which denied any dialogue is happening.
Saudi Aramco reported sharply higher second-quarter 2026 profits as the Iran war restricts global oil supply and pushes crude prices up. Other oil supermajors also posted outsized earnings, raising concerns about sustained fuel cost pressure for importing economies.
President Trump called current Iran negotiations the "last chance" to end five months of conflict, pushing oil prices higher. Tehran denied formal talks are taking place, raising the risk of a diplomatic breakdown with direct consequences for global energy markets.
