UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned Thursday that restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are "strangling the global economy" and could push the world toward recession if not reversed quickly. The strait is a critical chokepoint for global flows of oil, gas, and fertiliser. Guterres attributed the disruptions to Iranian attacks and threats and a US blockade of Iranian ports. Even a best-case resolution would still slow global growth from 3.4% to 3.1%, push inflation to 4.4%, and sharply reduce trade. If disruptions continue through midyear, 32 million people could fall into poverty and 45 million more could face extreme hunger as fertiliser shortages reduce crop yields. A worst-case scenario, disruptions lasting through year-end, risks a full global recession. Guterres stressed the damage compounds non-linearly: "These consequences are not cumulative. They are exponential." Even if shipping resumes today, supply chains could take months to stabilise, keeping prices elevated and output depressed. Guterres called on all parties to restore navigational rights immediately and flagged ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks as the key variable to watch.
Qatar's foreign ministry said mediators including Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman have reached "very progressive stages" in efforts to end the US-Iran war, pushing Brent crude down more than four percent.
Qatar confirmed it is mediating between the US and Iran but said no direct talks are currently planned. The clarification follows conflicting statements from President Trump, who claimed talks are under way, and Tehran, which denied any dialogue is happening.
Saudi Aramco reported sharply higher second-quarter 2026 profits as the Iran war restricts global oil supply and pushes crude prices up. Other oil supermajors also posted outsized earnings, raising concerns about sustained fuel cost pressure for importing economies.
President Trump called current Iran negotiations the "last chance" to end five months of conflict, pushing oil prices higher. Tehran denied formal talks are taking place, raising the risk of a diplomatic breakdown with direct consequences for global energy markets.
