A planned summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping may yield less on trade and supply chains than U.S. businesses had hoped, because Iran has moved to the top of the agenda.

The U.S. military struck Iranian nuclear sites in mid-June, and Washington is now pressing Beijing to use its leverage over Tehran to help end the conflict. That diplomatic pressure is crowding out the economic issues that American companies most want resolved — chiefly tariffs and access to rare earth minerals.

Why Rare Earths Matter So Much

Rare earths are a group of metals essential to electric vehicles, semiconductors, defense systems, and consumer electronics. China controls the majority of global processing capacity, giving Beijing enormous leverage in any trade standoff. Earlier this year, China restricted exports of several rare earth elements as part of its response to U.S. tariffs, squeezing American manufacturers and defense contractors who depend on steady supply.

A productive Trump-Xi meeting was seen as one of the most direct paths to easing those restrictions. But if the two leaders spend most of their time on Iran, that conversation gets pushed back — or reduced to a side note.

What Gets Delayed

Businesses tracking the summit had been watching for movement on tariff rollbacks, rare earth export licenses, and broader supply chain agreements. With Iran dominating the diplomatic bandwidth, progress on any of those fronts looks less likely in the near term. Companies that had been waiting for policy signals before committing to sourcing or investment decisions now face continued uncertainty.

There is also a structural tension here. The U.S. wants China's help on Iran precisely because China has economic and diplomatic ties with Tehran that Washington lacks. But asking Beijing for a geopolitical favor while simultaneously maintaining steep tariffs on Chinese goods is a difficult ask — and Beijing has shown little appetite for concessions without reciprocity.

The summit's outcome will depend on whether Trump and Xi can compartmentalize the two tracks — Iran on one side, trade on the other — or whether progress on one becomes a bargaining chip for the other. Either way, American manufacturers, tech firms, and defense suppliers relying on Chinese rare earths are unlikely to get the clarity they were counting on anytime soon.