Economy

The IMF has revised its global sovereign debt forecast, now projecting government debt will equal 100 percent of world GDP by 2029, one full year earlier than previously expected. The acceleration raises refinancing risk and borrowing cost pressure for governments across major economies. The revised threshold will

China's economy expanded 5 percent in Q1 2026, beating forecasts despite mounting global uncertainty tied to the Iran war. The result signals near-term resilience but the conflict's impact on energy costs, trade, and supply chains remains unclear. Sustained performance through Q2 will be the next critical test for inve

New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday the Middle East war is already driving up inflationary pressures and limiting the central bank's ability to give clear interest rate guidance. The statement signals geopolitical conflict is now a formal factor in the Fed's inflation calculus, narrowing the case for nea

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said US consumers have not fallen off a cliff despite gasoline prices at $4 per gallon. The assessment matters because JPMorgan's transaction-level data gives the bank a direct read on household spending, making Dimon's view a leading signal for consumer health debates.

The Reserve Bank of India has told state-run oil refiners to use a dedicated credit line for dollar purchases instead of buying on the spot market. The directive removes a major, recurring source of dollar demand from open trading, directly reducing depreciation pressure on the rupee. The RBI used comparable measures d

China's GDP grew 5% in Q1, beating expectations and hitting the top of Beijing's 4.5%-to-5% full-year target range. Export strength drove the outperformance, though the growth mix raises questions about durability amid rising trade tensions. The result is China's most cautious annual growth target since records began i

The Fed's Beige Book reports steady US economic activity and employment, but Iran conflict-driven energy prices are prompting businesses to delay investment and hiring. Higher fuel and input costs are sustaining inflation pressure while wage growth stays muted, creating a margin squeeze. The duration of energy disrupti

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told CNBC on Wednesday that interest rates are likely on hold 'for a good while,' with no imminent move expected. The comments reinforce the Fed's wait-and-see stance while keeping both cuts and hikes as possibilities. Markets pricing near-term easing may need to reprice further out

Saurabh Mukherjea contends India's 30-year IT-services growth model is ending, with rising inflation, a weaker rupee, and rate hikes set to pressure consumers and lenders. He sees global supply-chain shifts opening a manufacturing export window and new investment opportunities in export-oriented sectors.

Pakistan is seeking new financing arrangements to stabilise foreign exchange reserves, Dawn reports. Reserve adequacy directly affects rupee stability, sovereign credit ratings, and IMF program compliance. No specific creditor names or deal sizes have been confirmed at this stage.

Malaysia's fuel subsidy bill is set to hit 10.6 billion ringgit ($2.26 billion) in April, roughly ten times the pre-Iran war level, as the conflict pushes global energy prices sharply higher. The spike exposes the fiscal vulnerability of administered fuel pricing systems, where rising international benchmarks automatic

A retirement planning query examines whether a two-crore corpus can sustain one-lakh monthly SWP withdrawals, implying a 6% annual drawdown rate. The viability hinges on portfolio returns consistently exceeding 6% after inflation, leaving little margin if markets underperform early in retirement. The scenario sits abov

A new inflation forecast suggests the Federal Reserve may delay anticipated rate cuts beyond 2026, upending market pricing for monetary easing. Persistent price pressures reduce the Fed's flexibility to cut even if growth softens, keeping pressure on borrowing costs across mortgages, corporate debt, and rate-sensitive

The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened monetary policy and raised its 2026 inflation forecast for both core and headline measures to 1.5, 2.5 per cent, up from 1, 2 per cent. The move signals MAS expects sustained upward price pressure, with the exchange rate mechanism serving as the primary policy lever. Business

India's IMD has forecast 92% of long-period average rainfall for the 2026 monsoon, categorizing the outlook as below normal, with weak La Niña conditions expected to transition into El Niño. The shift raises risk for kharif crop production and rural demand, with potential upward pressure on food inflation.

The next Federal Reserve chair steps into a policy environment where inflation was already re-accelerating before the Iran conflict added fresh supply-side pressure. The dual mandate is harder to balance when energy price shocks are imported, limiting both rate-cut and rate-hold options. Confirmation timeline and early