Vote counting is underway in key Indian state assembly elections, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeking to extend its political footprint against regional challengers.

Exit polls conducted after voting closed last week gave the BJP a slight edge over Trinamool Congress, the party led by West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. Exit polls in India have a mixed track record, so the margins they suggest are best treated as directional signals rather than firm predictions.

What Is at Stake

State election results matter well beyond local governance. They shape the BJP's negotiating strength within its national coalition, influence the opposition's morale and fundraising, and are often read as a mid-term referendum on the central government's economic and social policies.

A strong BJP showing would reinforce Modi's position heading into future national electoral cycles and could tighten the party's grip on resources, administrative appointments, and policy implementation at the state level. A surprise loss, on the other hand, would energise the opposition bloc and likely trigger a reassessment of BJP's campaign strategy in states where regional parties remain deeply rooted.

The Banerjee Factor

Mamata Banerjee has repeatedly outmaneuvered the BJP in West Bengal, making her one of the few regional leaders to consistently hold the party at bay. Her Trinamool Congress commands a strong ground organisation and has benefited from welfare schemes that retain voter loyalty in rural areas. The exit poll edge for the BJP, if it holds in actual results, would mark a significant shift in that dynamic.

Investors and policy watchers tend to track state election outcomes for signals on populist spending pressures, land acquisition ease, and infrastructure project clearances — all of which vary considerably depending on which party controls a state government.

The actual count will clarify whether the BJP has broken through or whether regional resistance has held. Results are expected to become clear as counting progresses through the day.