Vote counting is underway across five Indian states and territories, with West Bengal drawing the most attention. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is attempting to unseat Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, whose All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) has governed the state of 100 million people since 2011.

Exit polls gave the BJP a narrow edge in West Bengal, though polling agencies have a mixed track record in Indian elections. Both sides expressed confidence ahead of results. Banerjee told supporters the BJP would not prevail, while BJP state chief Samik Bhattacharya told AFP: "People of the state want change. The ruling Trinamool Congress will be defeated."

Why West Bengal Matters Most

West Bengal is the defining contest of this cycle. Political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty described it as capable of tilting the national balance of power. A BJP win would extend the party's footprint into a major opposition stronghold and give Modi fresh political capital as he navigates high unemployment and ongoing US trade negotiations. A TMC hold would signal limits to BJP's reach beyond its Hindi-belt base.

The campaign was contentious. Protests erupted over the removal of millions of names from voter rolls — officially to weed out ineligible voters, but critics argued the purge disproportionately targeted minority and marginalised communities. Past state elections in West Bengal have also been followed by violence, a concern as results come in.

Other States in Play

In Tamil Nadu, a major industrial state with over 80 million people, the incumbent DMK under Chief Minister MK Stalin is widely expected to retain power. In Assam, the BJP is similarly expected to hold on. In Kerala, exit polls suggest the Congress-led alliance may unseat the sitting Communist government. The small coastal territory of Puducherry, where the BJP is part of the ruling coalition, is also counting votes.

Taken together, these results will shape the political map Modi operates in ahead of the next general election cycle. A strong showing across multiple states strengthens his hand; setbacks, particularly in West Bengal, would embolden opposition parties. The count and any post-result developments are worth watching closely through the day.