The European Union's trade surplus has narrowed following the spike recorded earlier in 2025, when exporters front-loaded shipments ahead of anticipated U.S. tariff measures. The compression signals that the pre-tariff surge, a temporary distortion driven by accelerated export activity, has largely run its course, pulling headline trade figures back toward underlying trend levels. The mechanism is straightforward: buyers on both sides of the Atlantic rushed to clear goods before new duties took effect, artificially inflating export volumes and widening the surplus in the preceding months. As that pull-forward demand fades, the surplus contracts not because EU export competitiveness has deteriorated, but because the one-time buffer has been absorbed. What to watch: whether the normalized surplus level reflects durable demand for European goods or whether U.S. tariff pressure begins to structurally compress EU export volumes in sectors such as industrials, autos, and chemicals in the quarters ahead.
Pakistan's economy grew 3.7 percent in FY2026, its fastest rate in four years, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey presented by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. Growth beat last year's 3.18 percent but missed the 4.2 percent target, with floods, regional conflict, and weaker food exports cited as key drags.
The Union government released an additional Rs 1,09,019 crore in tax devolution to states on August 1, 2026, separate from the regular monthly transfer. The lump-sum release aims to accelerate state capital spending in the July-September quarter, with Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh among the top recipients.
US mortgage rates have risen to a one-year high as markets weigh Federal Reserve rate uncertainty and Middle East conflict-driven inflation fears. Higher rates increase monthly payments for new buyers and are likely to further suppress housing market activity and refinancing.
Pakistan's Sensitive Price Index rose 13.52 percent year on year for the week ending July 2, 2026, marking 45 consecutive weeks of annual gains. Electricity up 49 percent, wheat flour up 68 percent, and LPG up 44 percent year on year are the main drivers.
