Iran War Puts 32.5 Million at Poverty Risk

A US-Israel military campaign against Iran is pushing up global fuel and food prices, putting an estimated 32.5 million people at risk of falling into poverty, according to the sourced projection. The concern centers on Iran's position near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which a large share of the world's oil passes. Any sustained disruption there tends to ripple quickly into energy costs, and then into food production and transport expenses. Higher fuel prices raise the cost of fertilizers, irrigation, and freight, which means food gets more expensive even in countries far from the conflict. The people most exposed are those in lower-income households in import-dependent economies, where food and energy together make up the bulk of spending. The figure of 32.5 million represents those tipped below standard poverty thresholds by the price shock. The immediate thing to watch is whether oil supply routes remain open and how long the conflict sustains upward pressure on commodity markets.