The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC on May 1, ending a 59-year membership in the oil producer group. The exit frees the UAE to set its own output levels without being bound by the group's production quotas. The timing matters: global energy markets are already under pressure from trade uncertainty, demand concerns, and a recent OPEC+ decision to accelerate output increases. The UAE has long been a source of tension inside OPEC. Abu Dhabi's national oil company, ADNOC, has invested heavily in expanding capacity, and the UAE has repeatedly pushed for a higher production baseline. Leaving the group removes the constraint entirely. With the UAE now free to pump at will, global oil supply could rise faster than the market currently expects. That puts additional downward pressure on crude prices at a time when Brent is already trading well below recent highs. Watch how other ambitious producers inside OPEC, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan, respond, exits and quota disputes tend to be contagious.
Venezuela's earthquake death toll has reached 1,430 with the US Geological Survey warning fatalities could top 10,000, placing it among Latin America's deadliest in a century. US military planes are landing in Caracas, Washington is mobilising $150 million in aid, and rescue teams from 17 countries are on the ground.
Iranian armed forces attacked a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, briefly halting traffic through the waterway. The strike threatens a fragile US-Iran arrangement and could push shipping insurance costs and oil prices higher.
The US has struck Iran, with President Trump citing an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz as justification. The action raises immediate risks for global oil flows through one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints.
The US struck ten Iranian targets on the second consecutive day of military action, putting a fragile ceasefire under serious pressure. The escalation raises immediate risks for Gulf shipping, global oil supply, and regional stability.
