SpaceX is heading toward what could be the most valuable initial public offering in history, with private market deals valuing the company at roughly $1.25 trillion and IPO pricing expected to reach $1.75 trillion or higher. No prospectus has been filed yet, and full financials remain private, but enough information has leaked to attempt a serious valuation of the company across its three distinct business lines.

Three Businesses, One Company

SpaceX today is not just a rocket company. It operates three separate businesses with different economics, different competitors, and different growth trajectories.

The launch business is the original. Founded in 2002, SpaceX spent years developing reusable rockets and now controls more than 80% of the global commercial launch market. The total launch market is estimated at $30 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $100 billion by 2036. SpaceX holds a durable cost advantage through its reusable rocket technology and existing infrastructure, though national security concerns may allow some government-backed competitors to chip away at its market share over time. A conservative valuation narrative assumes SpaceX holds 70% market share by 2036 at a 40% operating margin.

Starlink, the satellite internet business, now accounts for nearly two thirds of SpaceX revenue. The company had roughly 10,000 satellites in orbit by end of 2025, about two thirds of the global total, and more than 10 million active subscribers. Revenue from Starlink and related services reached an estimated $11.4 billion in 2025. The addressable market is large but currently narrow: satellite broadband still lags fiber and cable in most urban and suburban areas, leaving it with rural customers, underserved regions, and transit markets like aviation and rail. If technology narrows that gap, the opportunity grows sharply. The valuation narrative here assumes the satellite internet market grows from $15 billion today to $160 billion by 2036, with Starlink holding a 75% share at a 60% operating margin, driven by favorable unit economics and a growing base of business customers.

The third business is xAI, acquired in early 2026. Its Grok large language model generated roughly $80 to $100 million in subscription revenue in 2025 and currently trails OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google in both usage and enterprise adoption. The valuation narrative assumes xAI targets consumer subscriptions and niche business applications rather than competing directly with ChatGPT and Claude for large enterprise contracts, reaching $80 billion in revenue by 2036 at a 50% operating margin.

What the Numbers Say

Using a cost of capital of 8%, which is close to the US company median and reflects the fact that much of SpaceX's risk is company-specific rather than market-wide, and that upside surprises are more likely than catastrophic failure, the discounted cash flow valuation lands at $1.22 trillion. That is roughly 10% below current private market pricing and about 30% below the rumored IPO price. A simulation across ten thousand scenarios produces a median value of $1.29 trillion, with $1.75 trillion and even $2 trillion falling within the distribution but leaving very little room for new investors to profit.

The valuation also includes an options category worth roughly $50 billion in 2036 revenues at a 30% margin, reflecting the possibility that space travel, improved broadband competitiveness, or an AI breakthrough opens new markets. These are treated as low-probability, high-payoff bets rather than core assumptions.

At the rumored IPO price, the trailing revenue multiple is around 112 times, and the EBITDA multiple approaches 220 times, using estimated 2025 figures. Those numbers compress significantly when forward revenue projections are used, which is precisely why bullish analysts will reach for 2030 or 2035 forecasts to justify the pricing. That is a legitimate analytical approach only if the same methodology is applied consistently to every company in the peer group.

Finding a peer group is genuinely difficult. Boeing and Northrop Grumman are low-growth defense contractors. Verizon and T-Mobile are mature telecom firms. Palantir is a software company without SpaceX's infrastructure requirements. No single public company resembles SpaceX, and no combination of them captures it cleanly. This creates real pricing risk: analysts who need to justify a buy recommendation will almost certainly use forward multiples, hand-selected peers, and generous market size assumptions to do so.

Corporate governance adds a separate layer of risk. Elon Musk holds approximately 42% of equity and close to 80% of voting rights, meaning public shareholders will have limited ability to influence company direction. SpaceX has historically shifted strategy without warning, entering and exiting businesses and pivoting its narrative rapidly. Investors in Tesla over the past decade know this pattern well. That unpredictability makes SpaceX dangerous to short but uncomfortable to hold at a price that already bakes in a flawless execution of three ambitious growth stories simultaneously.

The bottom line is straightforward. SpaceX is a genuinely exceptional company with real competitive moats in all three of its core businesses. At $1.22 trillion, the valuation is defensible. At $1.75 trillion or above, the margin of safety disappears. A meaningful market correction could bring the price into range where the risk-reward tilts favorably, but investors buying at the IPO price will need everything to go right across launch, satellite internet, and AI over the next decade to generate a reasonable return.