OPEC+ is moving toward agreeing another round of oil output increases, and this time the UAE will not be part of the hike, according to sources familiar with the talks. The group, which controls a large share of global oil supply, has been gradually unwinding the deep production cuts it put in place during earlier market downturns. Adding more barrels to the market typically pushes oil prices lower, all else being equal. The UAE's exclusion from this particular hike is notable. The country has previously pushed for a higher individual production quota, arguing its capacity has grown and its ceiling should reflect that. Whether this round sidesteps that dispute or leaves it unresolved is not yet clear from the available reporting. Oil markets will watch the final agreement closely. More supply from OPEC+ members at a time of uncertain global demand could weigh on crude prices, which in turn affects fuel costs, energy company revenues, and trade balances for oil-importing economies like India.
Venezuela's earthquake death toll has reached 1,430 with the US Geological Survey warning fatalities could top 10,000, placing it among Latin America's deadliest in a century. US military planes are landing in Caracas, Washington is mobilising $150 million in aid, and rescue teams from 17 countries are on the ground.
Iranian armed forces attacked a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, briefly halting traffic through the waterway. The strike threatens a fragile US-Iran arrangement and could push shipping insurance costs and oil prices higher.
The US has struck Iran, with President Trump citing an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz as justification. The action raises immediate risks for global oil flows through one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints.
The US struck ten Iranian targets on the second consecutive day of military action, putting a fragile ceasefire under serious pressure. The escalation raises immediate risks for Gulf shipping, global oil supply, and regional stability.
