Nifty Rebounds 8% in April, Still Below Pre-War Levels

India's Nifty index recovered approximately 8% through April following a sharp March selloff, but the benchmark has yet to reclaim levels that preceded the latest round of geopolitical escalation. The rebound does not represent a clean fundamental reset; it is largely technical, driven by short covering and selective buying rather than broad institutional conviction. Foreign institutional investors continue to pull capital, crude prices remain elevated, and geopolitical risk has not materially receded, all three acting as structural headwinds against a sustained rally. Valuations have improved as prices fell, which explains the selective buying, but that alone is insufficient to trigger sustained inflows. The failure to breach pre-war levels is the operative signal here: it indicates the market is repricing risk rather than recovering from a temporary dislocation. Traders and allocators should watch FII flow data, crude price trajectory, and any geopolitical de-escalation signal as the three variables most likely to determine whether April's move extends or stalls.