Morgan Stanley has warned that global oil markets face a tightening supply crunch if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into late June or July, describing the situation as a "race against time." The investment bank's analysts say the buffers currently cushioning markets may not hold if the disruption runs much longer.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters so much

The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply passes daily. It connects major Gulf producers, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, to global markets. Any prolonged closure forces buyers to seek alternative suppliers or draw down reserves, both of which push prices up.

The current closure is tied to the ongoing Iran war situation. Morgan Stanley's concern is not the immediate shock, which markets have partially priced in, but the cumulative pressure that builds if no resolution emerges over the next several weeks. Oil inventory buffers that exist today can absorb short-term disruption, but they are finite. The longer the strait stays shut, the faster those reserves deplete.

What could happen to prices

Morgan Stanley's analysts flag that a closure extending into late June or July would likely tighten global supply meaningfully, creating upward pressure on crude prices. The bank stops short of giving a specific price target in this warning, but the direction of risk is clearly upward in their assessment.

For energy markets, the key variables are how quickly diplomatic or military developments reopen the waterway, whether major producers can reroute supply through pipelines or alternate routes, and how fast consuming nations draw on strategic reserves. Saudi Arabia has some overland pipeline capacity to bypass the strait, but it is not sufficient to replace full Hormuz throughput.

Broader market consequences are significant. Higher crude prices feed directly into fuel costs, shipping costs, and eventually consumer prices across most economies. For India, which imports roughly 85% of its oil needs and sources a large share from Gulf producers, a sustained Hormuz closure would pressure the import bill, the rupee, and domestic fuel prices.

The immediate watch points are whether the conflict involving Iran shows any signs of de-escalation and whether major consuming nations signal coordinated strategic reserve releases. Until either happens, Morgan Stanley's framing, a race against time, captures the market's real anxiety: not whether disruption hurts, but how long it lasts.