The IMF has cut its global growth forecast and raised its inflation projection to 4.4 percent, up 0.6 percentage points, as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drives surging costs across oil, gas, and fertiliser markets. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, and any sustained disruption compresses supply faster than demand can adjust, transmitting price pressure across fuel, shipping, and food production simultaneously. Fertiliser costs, heavily tied to natural gas inputs, amplify the inflationary channel into agriculture, raising the risk of food price stress in import-dependent economies. The combination of an energy shock and a food cost shock tightens real household incomes and narrows central bank flexibility, particularly in emerging markets where commodity pass-through is faster and monetary credibility is thinner. Investors and policymakers should watch duration of the blockade, any coordinated strategic reserve releases, and whether central banks in vulnerable economies accelerate rate adjustments in response to the revised IMF baseline.
Venezuela's earthquake death toll has reached 1,430 with the US Geological Survey warning fatalities could top 10,000, placing it among Latin America's deadliest in a century. US military planes are landing in Caracas, Washington is mobilising $150 million in aid, and rescue teams from 17 countries are on the ground.
Iranian armed forces attacked a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, briefly halting traffic through the waterway. The strike threatens a fragile US-Iran arrangement and could push shipping insurance costs and oil prices higher.
The US has struck Iran, with President Trump citing an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz as justification. The action raises immediate risks for global oil flows through one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints.
The US struck ten Iranian targets on the second consecutive day of military action, putting a fragile ceasefire under serious pressure. The escalation raises immediate risks for Gulf shipping, global oil supply, and regional stability.
