Griffin Warns Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Recession

Citadel founder Ken Griffin warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz lasting six to twelve months would make a global recession unavoidable. The comment positions one of the world's most closely watched shipping chokepoints as a direct macro trigger, not merely a supply disruption. The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant share of global oil exports, and any sustained blockage would constrict energy supply chains feeding Europe, Asia, and North America simultaneously. Griffin's framing is notable because it sets a concrete timeline threshold, six to twelve months, at which point recessionary pressure would become, in his assessment, irreversible rather than manageable. Markets and energy traders will watch any escalation in the Persian Gulf with that window in mind. The immediate variable to track is whether diplomatic or military developments shorten or extend the risk horizon, and how quickly major oil consumers could activate strategic reserves or alternative supply routes to buffer the shock.