MCX Crude Surges 7.4% on Hormuz Blockade Threat

Crude oil prices on India's MCX surged 7.4% on Monday, April 13, after the US military announced preparations to blockade ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply moves. The move followed the collapse of US-Iran truce negotiations, removing a diplomatic buffer that had kept supply-disruption risk priced at moderate levels. The Strait of Hormuz blockade threat is a direct supply-shock mechanism: any restriction on tanker traffic forces buyers in Asia and Europe to source alternative crude at premium prices, widening differentials and pressuring refining margins globally. Indian refiners, who depend heavily on Gulf crude imports, face both higher input costs and currency hedging pressure if the disruption extends. The near-term trajectory depends on whether diplomatic back-channels reopen or US enforcement action escalates. Traders should watch official US naval deployment updates, OPEC member responses, and any emergency inventory release signals from the IEA as leading indicators of the next directional move in crude.